Jim Hoagland makes two interesting points about our approach to North Korea. His first point, about the current state of affairs, sounds plausible if not encouraging.
Bush would quickly bridge the warring factions of the Defense and State departments -- as he did in Iraq and Afghanistan -- if either the hawks or the doves could present him with a workable option. They haven't. Fudge stays on the menu as the president pursues diplomacy, refuses "to take the military option off the table" and waits for something to turn up.
But the second point is not bold enough. Surely there is another policy choice than returning to the failed Clinton strategy.
It is hard to argue against slow and steady in such unclear circumstances. But recent events underline the costs involved in the administration's policy of talking but not negotiating with Pyongyang while playing down the military risks of the confrontation. It may now be time to elevate both the diplomatic track and the muscle track and, most important, to synchronize them.It is too late in this crisis to consider U.S. troop withdrawals, however satisfying it would be to leave anti-American protesters in South Korea to experience the dangers of answered prayers. That will have to wait for calmer times. This is the moment to reinforce U.S. military options -- while linking them explicitly to greater flexibility in meeting North Korean demands for U.S. security guarantees.
This would be a Bush version of the "coercive diplomacy" that the Clinton administration used to get the 1994 framework agreement, which did buy an eight-year freeze on plutonium reprocessing (even as the North Koreans launched a secret uranium enrichment program in one of the starkest betrayals of an international accord in recent history).
Getting back to square one is never a glorious outcome, and it is likely to be especially disdained by this president. But squeezing Kim into a new and verifiable freeze may be the most realistic goal available.
But despite the desirability of a more definitive strategy, sometimes watchful waiting is the best, if worrisome, choice. Realistic patience may be required, with a healthy dollup of vigilance and preparation.
Posted by Alan at May 25, 2003 11:58 AM