Michael Barone examines Hillary's presidential aspirations today. I have no doubt she will run, and that the Dems will embrace her, and that they could win -- if the Republicans do not do more to prepare candidates to follow George W. Bush. Where are the new Republican leaders? It would sure be hard to vote for the likes of Orrin Hatch and Rick Santorum.
Sen. Clinton has made no move to run for president in 2004; evidently she has calculated that she and other Democrats have little chance at beating George W. Bush. Of course she denies that she has decided to run in 2008, and she will surely say that whoever is the Democratic nominee in 2004 has a real chance of being elected. These untruths are not evidence of special mendaciousness but harmless white lies required by the conventions of American politics. Of her ambition there can be little doubt. The most sensitive and convincing (though not friendly) portrait of her, by the late Barbara Olson in "Hell to Pay," shows a woman determined to wield political power from her days in college and law school. She has been working toward this goal for 35 years now. She is not going to give up when the highest prize seems within reach.But does the Democratic Party want to tie its fortunes to Sen. Clinton? Polling suggests she is in a strong position to win the Democratic nomination.
As a general-election candidate, she is less than a sure thing. In an ABC News poll 53% said they did not want her to run for president. A recent Quinnipiac poll showed her trailing George W. Bush 53% to 40%. Her enthusiasts might dismiss this as due to Mr. Bush's current strength, but the fact is that 100% know her and 60% are not supporting her.
Democrats would be unwise to give up entirely on their chances in 2004; as the Clintons showed in 1992, great turnabouts in politics are possible. But if 2004 turns out as most people suspect, Democrats must decide if their psychic investment in the Clintons, and in Hillary Rodham Clinton as an icon of feminist success, justifies nominating a candidate with her electoral weakness. Democrats exulted when Bill Clinton seemed to be paying no price for his personal shortcomings in the 1992 and 1996 elections, and in the impeachment controversy. But nothing in politics is free; there is only some question about when you pay the price. Democrats may end up paying the price for Gennifer Flowers and Monica Lewinsky, Whitewater and Travelgate, in 2008.
via the OpinionJournal
Posted by Alan at June 19, 2003 06:52 AM