Bill Gertz reports that officials believe an "eroded" al Qaeda must still be considered highly dangerous. The notion of a seriously weakened enemy doesn't seem consistent with the supposedly highly specific threats that caused the Orange Alert over the holidays, but the truth is we really don't know, and won't for a long time to come.
Al Qaeda's capability to conduct major attacks has "eroded significantly" as a result of the war on terrorism, but the terrorist group has not been destroyed, according to U.S. intelligence officials and security specialists.Posted by Alan at January 16, 2004 12:21 AMMore than two years after the September 11 attacks, al Qaeda "is battered, but they remain dangerous. They're still recruiting jihadists into the fold," said a U.S. official with access to intelligence reports. "Osama bin Laden and the group's dwindling top leadership are increasingly isolated from the organization's wider network," the official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity.
Security specialists think al Qaeda, in large measure, has lost the ability to carry out major attacks that can kill thousands, utilizing a centralized command that, in the past, has ordered attacks from places such as Afghanistan. Instead, the group, which still operates in small clandestine cells, has become even more decentralized.
How many members the group has today is not known.
Larry Johnson, a former U.S. government counterterrorism official, said al Qaeda today probably has about 500 core members left over from its 2001 peak. "I think al Qaeda is significantly weakened from where they were," Mr. Johnson said. "They are trying to use the invasion of Iraq like they used the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan [to recruit], but it doesn't appear they're having great success."
Mr. Johnson said al Qaeda attacks in areas with large Islamic populations — Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Iraq — have cost the group important local support. The group has "the air of Hitler in his bunker" at the end of World War II, he said.