Insightful Steven den Beste conducts an extensive examination of the pitiful state of affairs in which the Palestinians find themselves, thanks to the cynical, blockheaded maneuverings of Yasser Arafat and their other so-called "leaders." Incidents like the recent suicide bombing in Jerusalem, claimed by both Hamas and Fatah's al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, may be the violent death throes of the Palestinians' long, futile struggle. If so, credit will due to the fortitude of both Ariel Sharon and George W. Bush.
Israel is about to unilaterally implement a two-state solution, and it is Arafat who is running out of time. Once the wall is complete and Israel disengages from the West Bank, there will be no hope that the Palestinians could eventually take Israel back. And there is a very high chance, approaching certainty, that the Palestinian interfaction power struggle would turn violent and lead to an extremely bloody Palestinian civil war similar to the one that took place in Lebanon.The old strategy of making incremental gains against Israel over a period of years is about to fail. I think that the decision to put up the wall around the West Bank was a brilliant stroke by the Sharon government, because it offers a way for Israel to "win" without cooperation by the Palestinians, even though that win would be partial.
In every way, the decision to build the wall puts time on Israel's side, where time used to be viewed as being on the side of the Palestinians. Once the wall is complete, the Israelis can withdraw their military forces from the West Bank. Part of why the Palestinian power struggle hasn't turned violent is that the Israelis have been keeping the peace. When they are gone, it will turn ugly very rapidly.
And with the wall in place, it will become far more difficult for the Palestinians to make attacks on Israel.
Worst of all, the wall de facto draws the line of demarcation for the two-state solution, and the longer that it exists without any formal agreement between the Israelis and Palestinians, the less chance there would eventually be of renegotiating the border, even if the Palestinians ultimately accepted a two-state agreement.
Meanwhile, America's war continues and shows no sign of being abandoned, and the deep American strategy in the war (to inspire political and cultural reform in the entire region) has become apparent. Our efforts to try to create a functioning democracy in Iraq are, and are intended to be, a profound threat to the corrupt autocratic governments in neighboring nations, and since they're the primary source of support for the Palestinians, it's a threat to the Palestinian cause as well.
Read the whole thing.
Posted by Alan at January 31, 2004 10:09 PM