With the recent hijacked elections in Iran now over, it's time to ponder what's next. As noted here earlier, there are parallels between the current political struggle in Iran and Poland during the 1980s when Solidarity helped throw off the dregs of Communism there. Two Hoover Institution fellows elaborate on that theme today, and offer some advice to the West.
Contrary to common perception, Iranian society is today one of the most pluralist, and the Islamic regime one of the most fragile, in the region. Even after the election, the prospects for a democratic breakthrough are greater there than elsewhere in the Middle East. Iran occupies the same place in its neighborhood as Poland did in communist Europe in the 1980s. Like Poland then, Iranian society is organized, hostile to the regime, pro-democratic and pro-American, while Iran's rulers--like their Polish counterparts 20 years ago--have no legitimacy, are deeply corrupt, and seem ready to use any means necessary to survive. At the risk of stretching the analogy, last Friday's "coup" in Iran is the equivalent of Gen. Wojciech Jaruzelski's crackdown against Solidarity. Just as in Poland after December 1981, inside Iran the era of compromise and negotiation is now over.Posted by Alan at February 23, 2004 11:37 AMHowever, the coup in Iran today and the one in Poland are different in one critical respect: the West's reaction. In contrast to the concerted efforts in the '80s to aid Solidarity, few in the West--including the Bush administration--have shown much solidarity with Iran's democrats. This policy, or the lack of one, needs to change.