Columnist Robert Novak passes on to us some pointed commentary from private analysts Stratfor. The results from the Spanish electoral debacle will reverberate for months to come.
George Friedman, who runs the Stratfor private intelligence service, spotted a change in al-Qaida's outlook over the past year. The Islamist terrorist organization, which previously treated George W. Bush as largely irrelevant to its global designs, now has zeroed in on the president. Combining that change with the terrorist triumph in Spain points to an ominous trend in the war on terrorism -- and in the U.S. presidential election.Posted by Alan at March 23, 2004 08:47 PMFailure of the Arab "street" to rise in response to the U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq has led to questions in the Arab world about al-Qaida's relevance. The coordinated attack on Madrid commuter trains showed al-Qaida still can create havoc. However, the global significance is the electoral defeat of Spain's conservative party. Headed for victory against the weak socialist opposition, the popular regime was voted out after the terrorist attack because it sent troops to Iraq.
After last week's stunning Spanish election, a Stratfor report said, "given the use of planted explosives in Madrid rather than suicide bombers, al-Qaida is likely planning to carry on with this tactic, particularly given the tremendous success of the operation in Spain." Britain, Italy, Portugal, the Netherlands, Poland, Hungary and Australia were listed as U.S.-aligned nations risking the Spanish punishment. Stratfor added: "A wave of attacks in those countries against soft targets . . . could shift the global balance."
A new al-Qaida strategy twist was hinted last Thursday when the Abu Hafs al-Masri Brigades, which claimed responsibility for the Madrid bombings, offered a cease-fire if Spanish troops actually leave Iraq as promised by Zapatero. That first known possible al-Qaida offer to negotiate with the West pressures weak European governments who might prefer appeasement to the fate of Spain.
However, in Friedman's opinion, al-Qaida's big target will be the United States. He sees an attack earlier (in the summer) rather than later (in the autumn), when it might boost Bush's re-election chances. "The grand prize," said a Stratfor report, "would be triggering an election defeat for Bush -- something that clearly would demonstrate the group's influence over Western powers."