So, American Paul Johnson has been brutally murdered by al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Drudge has posted the gruesome photos for those who are so inclined [very graphic].
Despite the satisfaction that al Qaeda's big-talking ringleader himself was killed by Saudi security forces, the war inside Saudi Arabia continues to heat up. Intelligence consultancy STRATFOR says al Qaeda is applying pressure on a strategic weakpoint: Saudi dependency on Western technical expertise. The goal? Ruling the oil empire.
Al Qaeda has launched a multiphase war in Saudi Arabia. The militant group has mid-term operational goals and long-term strategic goals, with an endgame focused on ultimate control over one of the world's top oil producers.The current phase of the war in Saudi Arabia is focused on getting Westerners out of the kingdom. The withdrawal of the foreigners accomplishes the goal of weakening U.S.-Saudi ties and leaving the energy industry fully in Saudi hands. Driving the Western infidels out of the kingdom would also serve as a powerful recruiting tool for al Qaeda.
Ousting Westerners also opens thousands of positions in the energy and defense industries, positions al Qaeda will hope to see filled with Saudis or other Muslims sympathetic to its worldview. Taking control of the energy industry would give al Qaeda global leverage.
The war is a guerrilla conflict with militant attacks focused on Westerners. The next phase, however, will see a shift. The militants will reorient the conflict to directly targeting Saudi authorities. They will also move to establish themselves as a legitimate and viable political alternative.
Belmont Club looks at the worldwide implications of terrorism's threat to our oil economy and notes that the U.S. is footing the bill everywhere.
The War on Terror may prove to be "all about oil" but not in the way the Peace Lobby means it. International energy security, to which the Europeans contribute industrial action, is premised on the "commons" of American-provided maritime security. It is being turned into a money machine through which the most atrocious regimes on earth can extort ever increasing amounts of political influence and wealth through a glorified protection racket by proxy.
All of which is strategic, complex, difficult... and wholly ill-served by the shallow, election-year prattling of John Kerry, who spent the week pushing a hike in the minimum wage and after-school daycare.
Posted by Alan at June 19, 2004 09:41 AM