Interesting take on the timing of the presidential campaign: early voting could be an important edge.
Many Americans don't realize it, but large-scale voting in the tight 2004 presidential race will begin well before Election Day in many battleground states. Some analysts estimate that nearly one in three voters will mark ballots before Nov. 2 -- accelerating efforts by both parties to mobilize targeted constituencies.Posted by Alan at August 18, 2004 06:28 AMMost of the potential battleground states in the contest between Mr. Bush and Sen. John Kerry will allow voters to cast ballots before Election Day -- without requiring a reason. In Iowa, early voting begins just three weeks after the Republican convention ends, on Sept. 23. In Arizona, where ballots can be cast as of Sept. 30, the Bush campaign calculates up to half the vote will be cast before Election Day, up from 37% in 2000. In Florida, where voting starts Oct. 18, the total of early voters could hit 30%, doubling the 2000 level.
In a race as close as this one, such figures mean the winner could be the candidate who draws more votes in September and October.
Each party is using sophisticated early-voting programs to maximize its harvest among specific target groups. For Democrats, such voters include sympathetic blacks and Hispanics who lean toward Mr. Kerry but historically haven't voted at rates commensurate with their share of the electorate.
For Republicans, they include married women with children who could help close Mr. Bush's gender gap -- if they have time to vote between rushing among their homes, work and the day-care center.
Via The Wall Street Journal (subscription)