Pakistan's embattled president has announced a tour through several risky countries.
President General Pervez Musharraf will embark on a 16-day tour of Argentina, Chile, Brazil and Mexico on September 15.The main focus of the president’s visit will be to explore the possibilities of greater trade between Pakistan and these counties, a government official told Daily Times. After visiting the Latin American countries, Gen Musharraf will go to New York to attend the UN General Assembly session.
The official said Gen Musharraf would visit Argentina, then Chile, Brazil and Mexico. The official said there was great potential for trade with the four countries, but there was a need to first identify the trade areas which would most benefit Pakistan.
Austin-based intel firm Stratfor points out (subscribers only) that he is venturing into a simmering zone of potential terrorism.
Musharraf's trip coincides with recent well-documented activity by suspected al Qaeda members throughout South America and Mexico. Additionally, areas of South America are well-known havens for all breeds of militants. Musharraf has been in al Qaeda's crosshairs -- having survived two assassination attempts in December 2003. To top it off, al Qaeda reportedly plans to target government officials for assassination in the near future, and Musharraf's security has been notoriously porous.In other words, Musharraf's trip could be a recipe for disaster.
Indeed, a recent FrontPage article summarized the Islamic terrorist buildup in South America.
Since the early 1980’s, Arab terrorists have been sending thousands of their cohorts to the almost inaccessible jungle and mountain region between Brazil, Argentina, and Paraguay (known as the TBA, Tri-Border Area or La Triple Frontera). Terror training camps and arsenals have been established, virtually out of the reach of local law enforcement or defense forces; and elements from Hezbollah, al-Gama’a al-Islamiyya, Islamic Jihad, al-Qaeda, Hamas, and the Lebanese Drug mafia operate in partnership, freely and openly in conjunction with local organized crime and corrupt government officials.The TBA has become a virtual haven for Islamic terror groups and a base for terror operations against South American targets.
Since Musharraf is personally a critical ally in keeping the lid on the breakout of a Taliban-like Pakistan, this "tour" seems awfully risky and therefore puzzling. What's so interesting in these four countries anyway?
And even if he isn't assassinated by al Qaeda while traveling, what about the risk of a shakeup back home and loss of control over Pakistan's nuclear arsenal?
The Council on Foreign Relations talked about the security of the nuke horde earlier this year.
While many experts say there is little short-term risk that a Pakistani nuclear weapon could be seized by terrorists or rogue elements within Pakistan, serious concerns about the country’s nuclear security remain. One fear is that increased domestic instability or armed clashes with India could weaken procedures that safeguard the weapons.Since 2000, the nation’s key nuclear institutions have been under the unified control of the National Command Authority, a joint military-civilian structure that includes Pakistan’s top generals and civilian leadership. But Pakistan’s current president, General Pervez Musharraf, is also the head of the army, and in practice the Pakistani military is in charge of the program, experts say. Day-to-day control is exercised by the Strategic Plans Division, a joint military command that oversees the nation’s full range of nuclear activities, including production, research, and deployment. The operational security of Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, experts say, is the responsibility of General Khalid Kidwai, the three-star general who runs the division.
According to various media reports, the weapons are stored with their fissile cores separated from the non-nuclear components, so they cannot be fired at a moment’s notice or without the cooperation of a number of military officials. According to Lavoy, Pakistan could assemble and deploy several nuclear weapons within a week.
The United States has offered Pakistan help in securing its arsenal; the exact nature of the agreement is classified.
Many experts say they believe that in the short-term, oversight from Pakistan’s professional military is tight enough that the risk of theft or accidental deployment of a weapon is low. If Musharraf were assassinated by Islamic fundamentalists or other enemies, another military general with similarly pro-Western views would likely take his place, many experts say.
Risky business. Have a safe trip, General. For all our sakes.
Posted by Alan at September 5, 2004 09:10 AM