Following up on an earlier analysis, Israel's Ma'Ariv reports on Iran's strategic designs in Syria, and its contest with Yasser Arafat for domination of the Palestinians. The key: an Iranian alliance with al Qaeda.
The sudden united western front against Syria, with France joining the US in tabling a UN resolution demanding Syria withdraw from Lebanon was prompted by new evidence of Iranian-Syrian collusion to transform Lebanon into a safe haven for al Qaeda.Iran has two major strategic goals. One is to buy time until it becomes a nuclear power, which it believes will buy it the same immunity from US attack that a similar status has brought Pyongyang. The second is to prevent the US from permanently entrenching itself across the Shat el Arab river in Iraq, and seeing Iraq fall into less than friendly hands.
A base on the Lebanese coast under the protection of Beirut’s Syrian overlords would enable Teheran to project power southwards towards Israel, northwards towards Turkey and westwards towards Europe. Teheran hopes this would significantly increase its standing and prestige in the predominantly Sunni Arab world by succeeding in pressuring Israel into accepting a humiliating and unfavorable settlement, something the Arab world has singularly failed to achieve.
Such a base would also enable Iran to initiate terror attacks against France and other European countries, to intimidate them into not joining the US in targeting Iran’s nuclear facilities, either via sanctions or military action. It could also serve a base to mount attacks on the vital Turkish oil port of Ceyhan, the planned major terminus of future pipelines designed to lessen the West’s dependence on Middle East oil by piping oil from the newly discovered Caspian Sea oilfield.
With such a strategy in mind, Iran has, according to intelligence sources, increased its cooperation with al Qaeda. As previously mentioned, its Hezbullah proxy has already allowed a small force of al Qaeda operatives to set up base in Gaza, and perhaps in the West bank as well.
It was these developments that have prompted the renewed demands on Syria to withdraw from Lebanon. Once the Syrian military leaves Lebanon, Beirut can begin reasserting its sovereignty, bringing Hezbullah to heel. Without Hezbullah, Iran loses its Lebanese base, hence by challenging Syria the US is issuing a new challenge to Iran, after having called its bluff by going after al Sadr’s ragtag Mehdi army.
Iran realizes it is dangerously close to a showdown, either with Israel or the US, perhaps both.
Tip via Melanie Levine in the UK, who says:
It goes without saying that this geopolitical positioning is not being reported in Britain, where news about the Middle East is stuck in its well-worn grooves of ignorance, idiocy and prejudice. The fact is, however, that Iran presents an unconscionable threat which needs to be dealt with as a matter of urgency. The crucial question is whether a second-term Bush administration (don't even ask about Kerry) would have the bottle.
Related:
Michael Ledeen on Iran and al Qaeda