August 28, 2005

New Orleans worst case scenario is growing

Uh oh: New Orleans's worst nightmare may be about to come true.

Hurricane Katrina strengthened to a dangerous Category 5 storm on Sunday with 160 mph sustained wind as residents of south Louisiana jammed freeways in a rush to get out of the low-lying region and head inland to higher ground.

The hurricane's landfall could still come in Mississippi and affect Alabama and Florida, but it looked likely to come ashore Monday morning on the southeastern Louisiana coast, said Ed Rappaport, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center in Miami. That put New Orleans squarely in the crosshairs.

"If it came ashore with the intensity it has now and went to the New Orleans area, it would be the strongest we've had in recorded history there," Rappaport said in a telephone interview Sunday morning. "We're hoping of course there'll be a slight tapering off at least of the winds, but we can't plan on that. So whichever area gets hit, this is going to be a once in a lifetime event for them."

He said loss of life was "what inevitably occurs" with a storm this strong.

"We're in for some trouble here no matter what," he said.

As noted yesterday, New Orleans is on the brink of catastrophic damage. If hit by a Category 4 or 5 storm, the city may become a "modern Atlantis."

UPDATE: The news is getting worse and worse.

BULLETIN HURRICANE KATRINA ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005

...POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE KATRINA...EVEN STRONGER...HEADED FOR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST...KATRINA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 175 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. KATRINA IS A POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES. THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY MEASURED A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 907 MB...26.78 INCHES.

COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 18 TO 22 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...LOCALLY AS HIGH AS 28 FEET ALONG WITH LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL.

High tide tomorrow is predicted for between 5:00-6:00 a.m.

UPDATE: The NHC now measures storm pressure at 902 MB and predicts landfall "early Monday."

Related:

• NOLA.com - RiverCam
• Port of New Orleans - Web Cameras
• WDSU - Causeway Cam
HurricaneTrack.com
National Hurricane Center

Posted by Alan at August 28, 2005 08:35 AM