Here's possible good news on the projected landfall of Hurricane Rita from Weather Underground's Steve Gregory :
[T]he new GFS 12Z model run continues to show landfall further east - now along the TX./LA border. This dramatically increases the potential storm surge threat for southwest LA, while reducing the threat to Galveston. Whether or not this is just a 'flip-flop' in the track evolution is simply unknowable -- but the initialization data shows the high pressure ridge to the north weakening as forecast by the GFS, and I'm inclined to believe it. Accordingly, from my perspective, the highest probability; for landfall, lies from near High Island, Texas (about midway between Galveston and Port Arthur) eastward to Cameron, LA.
Here's Steve's bad news forecast:
Beyond the issue of the actual landfall point -- for the past 2 days, the global models have been forecasting the re-development/intensification of the high pressure ridge over the central U.S. -- and then expands it towards the Gulf coast. What this means, is that after Rita moves inland Saturday morning, it will gradually slow down, then stall out over west central Louisiana - and then is forecast to drift SOUTHWESTWARD towards Houston by Monday. This type of motion would lead to extreme rainfall totals across much of Louisiana and the east-southeast areas of Texas following landfall. Tremendous, life threatening flooding could result from portions of Louisiana southwestward to the Houston area. Storm rainfall totals could easily exceed 20" in some locations.
This is not going to be over anytime soon.
Posted by Alan at September 22, 2005 02:09 PM