Newsweek pundit Fareed Zakaria says it's "time to face reality on Iran" -- that Iran will go nuke and we can't stop it without a military strike that will cause even more trouble.
This is not a best-case outcome, but it has its virtues. The existence of a clear and present danger in Iran will keep the international community galvanized. Already, the Western alliance has been strengthened in response to Iran's belligerence, and cooperation with India, Russia and China seems a stronger possibility than ever before.Threats usually have the effect of sobering up the neighborhood. If Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other countries see that they face a serious problem in Iran, they might recognize that they could use outside allies. American influence in the region could become stronger and be used to push for cooperation on other foreign-policy issues, as well as economic and political reform. Notice how the rise of China has Japan and India moving closer to the United States. The Soviet threat brought Western Europe closer to the United States. It's not inconceivable that a similar dynamic could work in the Middle East.
Properly handled, Iran's threat might even improve the situation in Iraq. One of the grave problems facing Iraq is the rampant and destabilizing Iranian influence in its politics and government. If Iran continues down a nuclear path, politicians in Iraq—of all stripes—will begin to view this as a threat to their national security. It's tough to say that Iran is just a friendly neighbor helping out if it is actively pursuing the military capacity to obliterate you.
Maybe a sound strategy... for us, ten thousand miles away. Maybe not for tiny, beleaguered Israel.
Posted by Alan at January 22, 2006 11:46 AM