Texas Republicans will have to demonstrate more electoral skill than they have up until now to win a November contest for Tom Delay's House seat. Color me dubious.
Mounting a successful write-in candidacy will be extremely difficult, according to political experts. First, the party will have to persuade straight-ticket Republican voters to individually select candidates in each race. And if there are several write-in candidates, the statistical probability for success also declines. There's also a question of how much money a candidate can raise in a shortened campaign cycle.Posted by Alan at August 9, 2006 10:31 AMDemocratic nominee Nick Lampson has had all summer to campaign and has $2.1 million in the bank.
"The whole write-in theory is ludicrous," Austin political consultant Bill Miller said. "It is handing the seat to the Democrats. Republicans cannot win this seat with a write-in candidate, I don't care what name they write in."
What a write-in candidate gains is a leg up in the next primary, Miller said. Even if the candidate loses, he or she will be able to build name identification and visibility. "Losing once is no big deal," Miller said. "Lose more than once, then you are branded a loser."
...Anyone who ran in the March primary is not eligible as a write-in candidate. And state representatives, who also are on the ballot this November, would have to withdraw from their races to run as a write-in candidate for the congressional seat.
That means Sugar Land lawyer Tom Campbell, who came in second in the March GOP primary, and state Reps. Robert Talton of Pasadena and Charlie Howard of Sugar Land are out of the running.