The experts in the State Dept. say that dictatorial rule in Cuba will continue unabated. Seems like the same experts predicted the USSR wouldn't fall either. Either way, an increasingly risk-averse White House is listening.
The permanent successor to Fidel Castro will be his brother, Raul, Bush administration officials have concluded, and he will be enthusiastically assisted by the cadre of "young technocratic communist professionals" who have run Cuba's day-to-day government machine for decades.Posted by Alan at August 28, 2006 06:10 AMThe officials said in interviews that this layer of committed communists is a key reason that democracy is not likely to emerge in Havana soon after the dictator's death.
The Bush administration has debated making secret overtures to Cuba. One strategy toward democracy considered was an alliance with key military leaders in the Revolutionary Armed Forces (FAR), the officials said. Some officials in the Pentagon backed the idea, but the State Department and White House said "no," calling it unlikely to succeed.
Mr. Castro's military was considered as a contact point because it is regarded as the "least of three evils" within the security apparatus, which also includes the regular police constabulary and the secret police.