Anaylst Fred Burton of Stratfor, pondering recent incidents involving airline security, writes to offer a useful reminder about terror threats, and how we react.
To say that the governments and industries targeted by terrorism face difficult choices is a gross understatement. The problem lies in the fact that decision-makers not only must protect the public against specific groups using known tactics (in al Qaeda's case, bombs and liquid explosives) but also must protect themselves in the face of public opinion and potential political blowback. Officials naturally want to be perceived as doing everything possible to prevent future acts of violence; therefore, every threat -- no matter how seemingly ridiculous -- is treated seriously. Overreaction becomes mandatory. Politicians and executives cannot afford to be perceived as doing nothing.This powerful mandate on the defensive side is met, asymmetrically, on the offensive side by a force whose only requirements are to survive, issue threats and, occasionally, strike -- chiefly as a means of perpetuating its credibility.
It remains to be seen if the Western polity can muster the attention span and fortitude to stay the course in a long-term asymmetrical conflict. It just doesn't fit with long-held mental models about warfare, and frustration is one result.
Posted by Alan at August 29, 2006 05:24 PM