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Mexico's drug cartels

As noted last week, a U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security subcommittee recently issued a report on the security risks building on the U.S.-Mexico border. Now terrorism analyst Fred Burton of Austin-based Stratfor writes to detail the deadly threat of Mexico's powerful drug cartels.

Violence stemming from the drug cartels has existed for decades in many parts of Mexico. What is new is the fact that cartel violence is now spilling over onto the U.S. side of the border. However, although the House report -- by the Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Investigations -- focuses on the current risks in the border area, the threat posed by the cartels already is making its way farther north. If left unchecked, the fighting can eventually be expected to erupt more widely in nonborder areas, affecting unprepared law enforcement agencies and even civilians.

Much of the violence is a result of the ongoing struggle between the three main drug cartels -- Gulf, Tijuana and Sinaloa -- for control of lucrative narcotics- and human-smuggling routes stretching from Mexico into the United States. Although the Mexican government has made efforts to stem the bloodshed, two main factors have impeded any major progress in this area. First is internal police corruption. Beyond the police commanders and officers who gladly accept money in exchange for providing the cartels with protection are those who face the choice between "plata o plomo," -- "silver or lead" -- meaning take a bribe or take a bullet. Second is the fact that federal and local security services are way outgunned -- both in terms of the types of weapons used and the training level of the people using them....

Though the House report warns of the dangers to law enforcement and civilians on the border, the spread of this cartel violence beyond the border region could catch many law enforcement officers by surprise. Patrol officers conducting a traffic stop on a group of Los Zetas members who are preparing to conduct an assassination in, say, Los Angeles, Chicago or northern Virginia could quickly find themselves heavily outgunned and under fire. Additionally, because of their low regard for human life and disdain for innocent bystanders, any assassination attempts cartel members do manage to launch might be very messy and could result in collateral deaths of innocent people and responding law enforcement officers.

U.S. law enforcement officers along the border are aware of the problem of Mexican cartel violence and have made efforts to mitigate it, though they have found they cannot completely prevent it or root it out. This same reality will apply to the violence that will soon be seen farther inside the United States. The roots of this problem lie in Mexico, and the solution will also need to be found there.

Mexico's Cartel Wars: The Threat Beyond the U.S. Border
By Fred Burton

The U.S. House of Representatives Homeland Security subcommittee recently issued a report on the increasing security risks along the U.S.-Mexican border. The report, which focuses on the Mexican drug cartels and the threat they pose to citizens and law enforcement on the U.S. side of the border, cites the cartels' use of military weapons and mercenaries with advanced military training, as well as their affinity for brutality and gratuitous violence.

Violence stemming from the drug cartels has existed for decades in many parts of Mexico. What is new is the fact that cartel violence is now spilling over onto the U.S. side of the border. However, although the House report -- by the Committee on Homeland Security Subcommittee on Investigations -- focuses on the current risks in the border area, the threat posed by the cartels already is making its way farther north. If left unchecked, the fighting can eventually be expected to erupt more widely in nonborder areas, affecting unprepared law enforcement agencies and even civilians.

Much of the violence is a result of the ongoing struggle between the three main drug cartels -- Gulf, Tijuana and Sinaloa -- for control of lucrative narcotics- and human-smuggling routes stretching from Mexico into the United States. Although the Mexican government has made efforts to stem the bloodshed, two main factors have impeded any major progress in this area. First is internal police corruption. Beyond the police commanders and officers who gladly accept money in exchange for providing the cartels with protection are those who face the choice between "plata o plomo," -- "silver or lead" -- meaning take a bribe or take a bullet. Second is the fact that federal and local security services are way outgunned -- both in terms of the types of weapons used and the training level of the people using them.

President-elect Felipe Calderon has vowed to end corruption in Mexico, but his administration will face the same issues as did its predecessors, and there is no indication it will have any more success at stemming the escalating violence. Indeed, the U.S. Embassy in Mexico City issued a statement Sept. 15 warning U.S. citizens of the rising level of "brutal violence in areas of Mexico," specifically the persistent violence along the U.S. border in Nuevo Laredo.

Escalating Violence

In one recent and particularly gruesome incident that illustrates the current level of violence in Mexico, a group of masked gunmen entered the Light and Shadow nightclub in Uruapan, Michoacan state, on Sept. 6, fired weapons into the air and then tossed five severed human heads onto the dance floor. Beheadings had already reached the U.S. border in June, when Mexican authorities recovered four beheaded bodies from a vacant lot in Tijuana, and then pulled the heads from the nearby Tijuana River. The victims were three local police officials and a civilian.

Mexican drug gangs, who used the beheadings tactic for the first time in April, are sending a clear message that they are willing to go to any lengths to get what they want -- and that anyone who gets in their way is doomed. This same message also has been delivered via a number of attacks using grenades and assault rifles in other parts of Mexico, including the U.S. border cities of Nuevo Laredo, Tijuana and Juarez.

Another example of the escalation in violence is the Sept. 22 firefight in an upscale neighborhood of Nuevo Laredo between enforcers for the Gulf cartel and the security forces of an assassination target (presumably from the Sinaloa cartel). The engagement, which raged on for some 40 minutes and involved anti-tank weapons, hand grenades and automatic weapons fire, reportedly resulted in the deaths of five Gulf cartel enforcers and five other people.

The Mexican government has tried various tactics throughout the years to stem the violence and corruption associated with cartels, including dispatching military troops to Nuevo Laredo and other border cities. In June 2005, a string of events in Nuevo Laredo -- including the killing of two police chiefs in the city, the second of which occurred only a few hours after he was sworn into office -- prompted the Mexican government to dispatch army troops and federal agents to the town. The army and federal agents detained all 700 officers of the Nuevo Laredo police force and temporarily assumed their duties until some semblance of order could be restored. Following interviews and drug tests, only 150 of the police officers retained their jobs; the rest were terminated or arrested. More recently, in March, the Mexican government assigned an additional 600 members of the Federal Preventative Police to Nuevo Laredo as part of another program to fight increased violence related to the drug trade. Such solutions, however, have failed to stem the corruption and violence. As evidenced by the major firefight Sept. 22, Nuevo Laredo remains a hotbed of cartel activity.

The Ongoing Cartel Wars

Because of its geographical position beneath the United States, Mexico long has been used as a staging and transshipment point for narcotics, illegal aliens and other contraband destined for U.S. markets from Mexico, South America and elsewhere. Turf battles have flared up as various criminal organizations have moved to take control of smuggling routes, or "plazas," that lead into the United States. Over time, the balance of power between the various cartels has shifted as new cartels emerge or older organizations weaken, shrink or collapse -- creating temporary power vacuums that competitors rush to fill. Vacuums sometimes are created by law enforcement successes against a particular cartel; indeed, cartels will often attempt to use law enforcement against each other, either by bribing Mexican officials to take action against a rival or by leaking intelligence about a rival's operations to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration.

These kinds of tensions and frictions often can lead to inter-cartel warfare. The February 2002 death of Tijuana cartel leader and chief enforcer Ramon Arellano Felix, who was killed in a shootout with police in Mazatlan, and the March 14, 2003, capture of Gulf cartel leader Osiel Cardenas Guillen in Matamoros sparked the current period of particularly brutal warfare among the three cartels, which aim to take territory from one another. This war is being waged not only for control of Mexico's incoming drug shipments, in cities such as Acapulco and Cancun, but also for control of the outgoing network, where border towns have been focal points for violence.

The New Enforcers

The likely reason for the most dramatic changes between the drug wars of the past and the current intra-cartel violence is the makeup of the enforcing teams and the weapons they use. Though the cartels historically did their own dirty work, they now have started subcontracting out the violence to enforcers who apparently know no boundaries when it comes to who, how or where they strike.

This escalation has an obvious root cause: Some cartel leaders (notably from the Tijuana cartel) use active or retired police against their enemies, which has forced the targeted cartels to find enforcers capable of countering this strength. As a result, the Gulf cartel hired Los Zetas, a group of elite anti-drug paratroopers and intelligence operatives who deserted their federal Special Air Mobile Force Group in 1991. The Sinaloa cartel, meanwhile, formed a similar armed force called Los Pelones, literally meaning "the baldies" but typically understood to mean "new soldiers" for the shaved heads normally sported by military recruits. Because of attrition, the cartels have recently begun to reach out to bring in fresh muscle to the fight. Los Zetas has expanded to include former police and even motivated civilians. The group also has formed relationships with former members of the Guatemalan special forces known as Kaibiles and with members of the brutal Mara Salvatrucha street gang.

Though cartel enforcers have almost always had ready access to military weapons such as assault rifles, Los Zetas, Los Pelones and the Kaibiles are comprised of highly trained special forces soldiers who are able to use these weapons with deadly effectiveness. Assault rifles in the hands of untrained thugs are dangerous, but if those same rifles are placed in the hands of highly trained special forces soldiers who can operate as a fire team, they can be overwhelmingly powerful -- not only to enemies and other intended targets but also to law enforcement officers who attempt to interfere with their operations.

In addition to powerful handguns and assault rifles (which are frequently smuggled into Mexico from the United States), Los Zetas and Los Pelones are also known to possess and employ rocket-propelled grenades, hand grenades and improvised explosive devices, and have used them in attacks in several parts of Mexico. Such weapons are not confined to the Mexican side of the border, though. On Feb. 3, U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement announced that government agents operating in Laredo seized a large cache of weapons that included dynamite, grenades and materials for making improvised explosive devices. These weapons were associated with the drug cartels.

The various enforcer groups have targeted Mexican government officials protecting rival cartels, the leadership of the rival cartels and members of those cartels' enforcement arms. Some extremely brutal executions of members of Los Zetas and Los Pelones by their contemporaries have occurred, including not only beheading but also a tactic called "necklacing," in which a tire is placed around a victim's neck and set ablaze. (The tactic was made famous by the African National Congress in South Africa).

The drug cartels also conduct intimidation campaigns and reprisal attacks against noncriminal groups such as police, government security forces and journalists -- anyone who is seen as a threat to their business. Such attacks are quite significant, and gruesome executions are often the norm. That said, the crime gangs are not always precise in their targeting. At times, they have mowed down police on the streets with assault rifles or attacked police stations with grenades and other heavy weapons, causing considerable collateral damage.

The Future

In addition to their network of tactical operators, Los Zetas and Los Pelones also have provided the cartels with an advanced intelligence and surveillance capability. This network operates on both sides of the U.S.-Mexican border and has been used to protect drug shipments from law enforcement interdiction and the forces of competing cartels. They also are accomplished at countersurveillance operations and at avoiding the countersurveillance activities of their rivals.

Law enforcement officers along the U.S. border have reported many encounters with armed smugglers who do not hesitate to shoot. In one encounter last summer, two deputy sheriffs in Hidalgo County, Texas, were attacked as they patrolled the north bank of the Rio Grande. They reported that their assailants fired 300 to 400 rounds from automatic weapons at them before withdrawing.

To date, the violence associated with this intra-cartel warfare has been much more severe in Mexico than on the U.S. side of the border. Although this trend will continue, violence can be expected to increase on the U.S. side as targeted criminals and others search for safe hiding places. Perhaps as a sign of problems to come, the Los Angeles Times reported Oct. 23 that cartel-related corruption has been "rising dramatically" on the U.S. side of the border. With corruption spreading north, it is only a matter of time before more violence follows -- particularly because the cartels are especially adept at parlaying their power to corrupt into opportunities to commit violence.

Traditionally, when violence has spiked, cartel figures have used U.S. cities such as Laredo and San Diego as rest and recreation spots, calculating that the umbrella of U.S. law enforcement would protect them from being targeted for assassination by their enemies. This is beginning to change, however, as the bolder Mexican cartel hit men carry out assassinations on the U.S. side of the border in places such as Laredo, Rio Bravo and even Dallas, where law enforcement contacts indicate Los Zetas members are believed to have assassinated at least three people.

This change will likely cause high-value cartel targets to move even deeper into the United States to avoid attack, though their enemies' brazen and sophisticated assassins will likely follow. Judging from their history in Mexico and along the border, these assassins will have no qualms about engaging law enforcement personnel who get in their way, or about causing collateral damage. Their intelligence network will be bolstered by their alliances with street gangs such as Mara Salvatrucha and Calle 18, which have affiliates in many large cities throughout the United States. These allies can either provide them with intelligence or, in some cases, be contracted to conduct assassinations.

Though the House report warns of the dangers to law enforcement and civilians on the border, the spread of this cartel violence beyond the border region could catch many law enforcement officers by surprise. Patrol officers conducting a traffic stop on a group of Los Zetas members who are preparing to conduct an assassination in, say, Los Angeles, Chicago or northern Virginia could quickly find themselves heavily outgunned and under fire. Additionally, because of their low regard for human life and disdain for innocent bystanders, any assassination attempts cartel members do manage to launch might be very messy and could result in collateral deaths of innocent people and responding law enforcement officers.

U.S. law enforcement officers along the border are aware of the problem of Mexican cartel violence and have made efforts to mitigate it, though they have found they cannot completely prevent it or root it out. This same reality will apply to the violence that will soon be seen farther inside the United States. The roots of this problem lie in Mexico, and the solution will also need to be found there.

© Copyright 2006 Strategic Forecasting Inc. All rights reserved.

This report may be distributed or republished with attribution to Strategic Forecasting, Inc. at www.stratfor.com.

Election 2006

We took advantage of early voting today, which was easy and all electronic here in Harris County, Texas. Poll workers said turnout has been pretty strong.

Today's dark age

Victor Davis Hanson, classical historian, reminds us of an important lesson: we aren't far removed from barbarity, despite technology and all the rest of modernity.

The most frightening aspect of the present war is how easily our premodern enemies from the Middle East have brought a stunned postmodern world back into the Dark Ages....

[C]ivilization is forfeited with a whimper, not a bang. Insidiously, we have allowed radical Islamists to redefine the primordial into the not-so-bad. Perhaps women in head-to-toe burkas in Europe prefer them? Maybe that crass German opera was just too over the top after all? Aren't both parties equally to blame in the Palestinian, Iraqi and Afghan wars?

To grasp the flavor of our own Civil War, impersonators now don period dress and reconstruct the battles of Shiloh or Gettysburg. But we need no so such historical re-enactment of the Dark Ages. You see, they are back with us -- live almost daily from the Middle East.

Iraq video

Via Glenn Beck: The Real Story: Iraq Video.

The video shows the other side of the war in Iraq: the pictures you've never seen before and the amazing accomplishments you've never heard about before.

The giant conspiracy theory

Melanie Phillips writes in USA Today about the disturbing implications of burgeoning, and intertwined, anti-Americanism and anti-Semitism in Great Britain.

The biggest single cause of British anti-Americanism, however, is Israel. Despite being the target for more than half a century of genocidal Arab and Muslim aggression, Israel is widely perceived in Britain as the regional bully, and its acts of self-defense are viewed as the principal motor behind both the Middle East impasse and Islamic grievance because of its supposed refusal to allow the Palestinians to have a state of their own.

Thus John Denham, chairman of the parliamentary Home Affairs Select Committee, wrote that Israel's policies were making Britain a target for terror. America brought the 9/11 attacks upon itself, goes this type of thinking, because of its support for Israel — and the only reason Britain is now threatened by Islamic terror is because of Blair's support for the United States.

This has opened a Pandora's box of anti-Jewish prejudice in Britain.

A recent report by the Parliamentary Committee Against Antisemitism found that since 2000, anti-Semitism is on the rise in Britain. It is now common to read in the news media, for example, that the Jews are engaged in a global conspiracy that has subverted U.S. foreign policy to serve the interests of Israel and put the rest of the world at risk. In April, for instance, The Independent newspaper illustrated an interview on the subject of the “Israel lobby” in America with a picture of the American flag in which the stars of the union were replaced with the Stars of David. The headline: “The United States of Israel.” Thus the prejudice against America is inextricably conflated with prejudice against Jews and the Jewish state.

The dismaying truth is that, even after the suicide bombings in London, America's defense of the free world against Islamic terror is widely viewed in Britain as the cause of that terror. The paranoid bigotry that drives the jihad — that the United States and its Jewish puppet masters make up a giant conspiracy of evil — is being increasingly echoed within Britain's non-Muslim population.

The very idea that weakening the alliance with the United States would be in Britain's interests is madness. But in a country that has lost its way, rationality is a commodity in short supply.

God talk

Thought-provoking Heather MacDonald offers an opinion to ponder: piety doesn't belong in politics.

This surge of mediagenic piety is discouraging to one of the least heralded segments of the political spectrum: secular conservatives. The conservative movement has supposedly benefited from politicians who publicize their relationship to God. Non-believing conservatives, however, see this electoral gain as a Pyrrhic victory. Conservative principles, they say, are best grounded in reason and evidence, not revelation. The infusion of God talk into both parties' campaign discourse adds nothing to the public's ability to vote wisely....

Most educated people instinctively understand that a law-abiding society can easily slide into anarchy without widespread obedience to the law. The greatest conservative triumph of late 20th century America — New York City's return to civility — was achieved by appeal to secular values alone.Mayor Rudy Giuliani spoke relentlessly about the need for personal responsibility and respect for social order; he based his policies on principles that non-believers and believers alike could test against their own experience.

Invoking God in the political realm is a conversation stopper, not an invitation to robust debate. America's rules of religious etiquette demand that we acquiesce silently in a believer's claim of revelation. But conservatism doesn't need such revelation; common sense and an openness to fact will do just fine as support. Conservative principles are available to people of all faiths or no faith at all.

Avoiding the topic of faith may not be the answer, but there's no denying that the professed faiths of candidates for public office can be used or abused for political advantage, like anything else.

Playing favorites

The pro-Democratic filter of the major media is now so blatant that the smart set at ABC News' The Note can just lay it out for all to see, and no one is naive enough to think it will change before election day. Here's just part of their list:

How the (liberal) Old Media plans to cover the last two weeks of the election:

1. Glowingly profile Speaker-Inevitable Nancy Pelosi, with loving mentions of her grandmotherly steel (see last night's 60 Minutes), and fail to describe her as "ultra liberal" or "an extreme liberal," which would mirror the way Gingrich was painted twelve years ago.

2. Look at every attempt by the President to define the race on his terms as deluded and desperate; increasingly quote Republican strategists saying that the President is hurting the party whenever he enters the fray.

3. Refuse to join the daily morning Ken Mehlman-Rush Limbaugh conference calls, despite repeated invitations.

4. Imbue every Democratic candidate for whom Bill Clinton campaigns with a golden halo.

5. Paint groups that run ads or do turnout for Republican candidates as shadowy, extreme, corrupt, and illegitimate; describe their analogues on the left as valiant underdogs, part of a People's Army (with homage to Rich Lowry).

6. Care more about voter disenfranchisement than voter fraud.

7. Take every Republican quote expressing some trepidation about the outcome and banner it.

8. Drop any pretense of covering good news from Iraq (uhm&.) or good news about the economy, including some upcoming positive macro numbers (Quick, Note readers: name the current Secretary of the Treasury.).

9. Amplify Obama-mania as a metaphor for the Democratic Party being the party of excitement and the future.

No arguments here. Can the strategies by Mehlman and Rove succeed to beat the overwhelming bias by the media?

Strayhorn for governor

Interesting: the very conventional Houston Chronicle has endorsed One Tough Grandma for governor.

Texas badly needs to change its philosophy of governing. In hopes of fostering this change, the Houston Chronicle endorses Carole Keeton Strayhorn for governor. Of the four candidates, she is best equipped to shake up the status quo in a way that balances the needs of both business and residents.

Strayhorn is running as an independent, portraying herself as an outsider who wants to give Austin a jolt. In one sense that is true. She would bring a fresh style of leadership to the executive branch. But it should be remembered that Strayhorn is no novice when it comes to working the levers of government.

She has a lifetime of experience in government and public service. Once mayor of Austin, then a member of the powerful Texas Railroad Commission, Strayhorn serves as state comptroller. She knows how state government operates and how to make it more efficient and effective. Government, she says, can be leaner without being meaner.

More than any other candidate in this race, Strayhorn recognizes that the key to solving Texas' problems and securing the state's future is education. Half of all state tax dollars go to the public schools, yet half of Texas' children drop out before graduating from high school. In the information age, good jobs require higher education, yet too few of those who graduate go on to college.

The population of Texas is rapidly becoming more Hispanic, an ethnic group in which children are disproportionately at risk of dropping out. Unless Texas does a better job of keeping all children in school and preparing them for higher education, the state will not have enough middle-class taxpayers to pay for the education and government services a civilized society requires.

Strayhorn promises to make Texas public schools a model for the nation. She has a blueprint to raise teacher pay, recruit quality teachers, provide adequate and reliable school funding, increase student performance and cut the disastrous dropout rate. She has won the backing of the state's teachers....

[O]nly Carole Keeton Strayhorn has the experience and savvy to win election to the governorship and then use the office to improve public education and change the course of Texas for the better.

In a way, Strayhorn is the only choice. Kinky Friedman is a sideshow, not a real candidate; Chris Bell is a non-entity with the usual Democratic Party nonsense trailing behind him; and our current governor acts like an empty-headed tool of right-wing zealots and business lobbyists. It's still an uphill climb for Strayhorn, but remember: all she needs is a plurality.

• Strayhorn for Governor

Take this medicine

Much of the talk of prospective Republican doom at the polls in November is predicated on disillusioned supporters staying home, either from apathy or from a notion that somehow electoral loss would be therapeutic for the party and/or the nation. My lovely and talented spouse recommends this Tony Blankley editorial as a tonic for such misguided thinking.

If current polls and anecdotes are to be believed, there may be a million or two conservative Republicans who are planning to not vote this November.

Apparently, these anticipated conservative non-voters are annoyed with Republican imperfection. They are disheartened, disappointed, disillusioned, distempered, dismal -- and thus plan to dis the party that better advances conservative principles in government.

They appear to have fallen victim to the false syllogism: 1) Something must be done; 2) not voting is something; therefore, 3) I will not vote.

Of course the fallacy of the syllogism is that the second category could be anything....

This current conservative petulance -- if it actually occurs on Nov. 7 -- will increase the chances of electing Hillary or worse (if such a thing is possible) in 2008.

There is no rational policy or political basis for conservatives not voting. I'm not sure the country can take the current Democratic mob in power for long.

A realist once observed that the history of mankind is little more than the triumph of the heartless over the mindless.

The Democrats are obviously heartless. Conservatives must guard against falling into the category of the mindless. Ignore your heartfelt peevements, use your brains and vote.

Myself, I've become a single-issue voter. Since the Republicans are more committed to killing terrorists than anyone else, they get my vote, period. Even if I have to hold my nose to do it.

Outgunned, outmanned

This report, released today during the pre-election silly season, won't get as much attention as it should. It's more corroboration that the U.S. is rapidly losing sovereignty over its southern border. The willingness of President Bush and the rest of our political class both to accept this and to let the Mexican government off the hook remains stunning and inexplicable.

The U.S. Border Patrol and other law enforcement agencies at the U.S.-Mexico border are outgunned by increasingly ruthless and well-armed Mexican drug cartels, a new congressional report concludes.

"The cartels use automatic assault weapons, bazookas, grenade launchers and improvised explosive devices," the House Homeland Security oversight subcommittee report said. "In contrast, U.S. Border Patrol agents are issued 40-caliber Beretta semiautomatic pistols."

The report, scheduled to be released today by U.S. Rep. Michael McCaul, R-Austin, said drug cartels are able to break the encryptions on Border Patrol and sheriffs' deputies' radios.

"Lookouts for the cartels, using military grade equipment, are positioned at strategic points on the U.S. side of the border to monitor movements of U.S. law enforcement," it continued.

Even as the traffickers expand their drugrunning routes to smuggle immigrants into the United States, they are forming dangerous alliances with U.S.-based criminal gangs such as MS-13 and the Latin Kings, according to the congressional panel....

Hezbollah members already have entered the U.S. from Mexico, the report confirmed.

"As if narco-terrorist violence were not enough, extensions of Middle East terrorism have crept into the United States," the report stated. "Islamic radical groups that support Hamas, Hezbollah and Islamiya Al Gamat are all active in Latin America."

• Full report - A Line in the Sand (pdf)

Freddy Fender, RIP

Freddy Fender passed away yesterday. Here's a thoughtful remembrance by Andrew Dansby of this unique Texas talent. Heaven must be gently swinging now. Rest in peace.

Baldemar Huerta made a career of reinvention. As Freddy Fender, he became a pioneering Hispanic pop and country star. Fender died of lung cancer on Saturday at his home in Corpus Christi at age 69.

Thirty years have passed since the San Benito-born Fender last had a charting pop hit, but a pair of 1970s singles — Before the Next Teardrop Falls and Wasted Days and Wasted Nights — cemented his legacy. They were sad-eyed countrypolitan classics, delivered in a beautiful, almost androgynous voice that Fender maintained long after pop and country radio quit caring about his music.

"He was a giant of Texas music," said ZZ Top's Billy Gibbons, who first crossed paths with Fender in the Rio Grande Valley in the '60s, years before either of their careers would take off. "That strange blend of rock 'n' roll, R&B, blues and barrio sounds unlike any other," he said....

He was a rarity: A Hispanic star in mainstream country music. Even more unlikely was Fender's crossover into pop success. But his music was undeniably melodic and part of a gentler honky-tonk trend.

After the reverb-heavy '60s era of honky-tonk, Nashville in the early '70s warmed to more somber songcraft. Charlie Rich had crossed over two years before Fender with Behind Closed Doors and Most Beautiful Girl in the World, string-laden countrypolitan classics.

Fender's crystalline voice was a perfect match for this style of music, as was his diction, which was crisp and emphasized soft consonants in a hypnotizing way.

"It was a unique voice," said accordion legend and friend Flaco Jimenez. "Nobody's going to sound like Freddy Fender again. Ever."

This style of country music would later be bullied out of vogue by rougish outlaws such as Waylon Jennings and Willie Nelson (and the boys), but the delicate, vulnerable work of Fender and Rich retains a lush, timeless allure.

Cold front coming

"Pre-mortems" over the looming Republican washout in November have started. Usually an optimistic conservative, Fred Barnes predicts an electoral disaster.

In his stump speeches, the president concentrates on terror and taxes. And the contrast he draws between terror-fighting, tax-cutting Republicans and wimpy, taxaholic Democrats is reasonably accurate. But it's failing to attract independents or lure disgruntled conservatives back to the Republican fold.... The problem here is that national security isn't the leading campaign issue. And saying it should be won't make it so.

Glenn Reynolds, omniscient InstaPundit that he is, corrrectly blames the clueless Republican establishment and lists just a few of the "series of unforced errors on their part."

[T]he Republicans deserve to lose, though alas the Democrats don't really deserve to win, either. I realize that you go to war with the political class you have, but even back in the 1990s it was obvious that we had a lousy political class. It hasn't improved, but the challenges have gotten greater. Can the country continue to do well, with such bad political leadership? I hope so, because I see no sign of improvement, no matter who wins next month.

I just wish we weren't in a civilizational knife-fight just now. One would think the current conflict with assertive Islamism would sober everyone up, but apparently not. What will it take?

Shortcuts

Here's fresh confirmation from the land of Shakespeare and Dickens that English-speaking civilization's collapse is proceeding apace. Are we doing better in the U.S.? Maybe.

Standards have slipped so low that it is possible to get a top grade GCSE in English literature without having read a book, according to a report by a university professor and a secondary school head of English.

The teaching of literature by extracts has replaced reading for pleasure, understanding and appreciation to such an extent that some pupils believe Romeo and Juliet, the Shakespeare tragedy, has a happy ending, they say.

Pupils can get through the whole of their compulsory secondary education without reading any book from cover to cover, they claim.

Exam boards and the Qualifications and Curriculum Authority, the Government's curriculum advisers, are blamed for encouraging teachers to concentrate on bite-sized chunks of text instead of the full novel, play or poem.

English literature has turned into a comprehension exercise with self-contained chunks of texts reproduced in exam papers on which pupils can answer questions without the need to show an understanding of the whole work or its genre, they say.

Related:

• Wikipedia - General Certificate of Secondary Education

Gray legend

An important piece of historical victimology is being challenged by research. This won't be well received.

Here's what history tells us about the Spanish conquest of Mexico: Armed with modern weapons and Old World diseases, several hundred Spanish soldiers toppled the Aztec empire in 1521. And by the end of the century, the invaders' guns, steel and germs had wiped out 90 percent of the natives.

It's a key piece of the "Black Legend," the tales of atrocities committed by the Spanish Inquisition and colonizers of the New World.

But it may be just that — legend, according to Rodolfo Acuña-Soto, a Harvard-trained epidemiologist.

He argues that an unknown indigenous hemorrhagic fever may have killed the bulk of Mexico's native population, which plummeted from an estimated 22 million in 1519, when the Spaniards arrived, to 2 million in 1600.

And he warns that the fever — which the Aztecs called cocoliztli in their Nahuatl language — may still be lurking in remote rural areas of Mexico.

Not everyone buys the theory. But Acuña-Soto, who spent 12 years poring over colonial archives, census data, graveyard records and autopsy reports, is convinced that many historians are wrong about what killed the Aztecs.

"The problem with history is that it's very ideological," he said. "In this case, it was a beautiful way of accusing the Spaniards of unimaginable cruelties and of decimating the population of Mexico."

Paraskevidekatriaphobia

It's a doubled Friday the 13th, so be extra careful today. Not that there's really anything to worry about...

This is not a good day for paraskevidekatriaphobics -- those who fear Friday the 13th. It's double-13 Friday. All the numbers in the numerical notation -- 10/13/2006 -- add up to 13 as well, giving great pause to the superstitious.

The phenomenon hasn't happened in 476 years, said Heinrich Hemme, a physicist at Germany's University of Aachen who crunched the numbers to find that the double-whammy last occurred Jan. 13, 1520. "Pure chance," the good professor told the press yesterday.

But it's not exactly TGIF for the 21 million Americans who fear the day. Some may not travel or even get out of bed, said Donald Dossey, a North Carolina psychologist who coined the term "paraskevidekatriaphobia" 20 years ago. He estimates that the nation is out $900 million in lost productivity because of Friday the 13th sick-outs.

"It's just ingrained in our culture -- one of those collective, unconscious fears stretching back about 2,800 years," Mr. Dossey said. "But it will be all gone tomorrow. By the time you learn to pronounce 'paraskevidekatriaphobia,' you're cured."

Dixie

Donald Sensing, writing from his home state of Tennessee, offers some thoughtful and informed observations on the use (and misuse) of the historic Confederate battle flag.

It was extremely rare in the Old South for any kind of CSA flag to be publicly displayed for almost 100 years after the war ended. The reason? There was near-universal sentiment among surviving Confederate veterans, passed on for two or three generations, that the Confederacy’s colors could rightfully be flown only over an independent Southern nation. But that independence (such as it briefly was) ended in 1865 and therefore the CSA’s flag was retired by those who had fought and bled for it. Hence, for decades after 1865, the only time the CSA flag was flown was in solemn anniversary commemorations or perhaps at funerals, and maybe not even then....

Most people don’t know that the modern resurgence of displaying the Confederate flag only dates from the 1950s, and was started by Southern Democrats in protest of integration and civil rights rulings by US federal courts....

In my view it is appropriate to fly Confederate flags as historical reminders or to recognize that the Confederacy’s soldiers, however evil the cause they fought for, were American men whose legacy we still bear and struggle with. But to use the CSA’s battle flag as an emblem of “Southern pride,” or Southern culture or white supremacy is repugnant. As a son of the South I love so much about this region of the country and the people who live here. I wish there was a different insignia that Southerners could display to show their pride and love of the South.

Read the whole thing, and watch the predictable debate in the comments.

The few against the many

Historian Victor Davis Hanson notes how the debate on illegal immigration has evolved during the three years since his important book Mexifornia.

Broad class considerations are now transcending particular party, racial and ethnic views of illegal immigration, pitting the well-off few against the less-fortunate many. Many of the more privileged Americans who frequent fancy restaurants, stay in hotels and depend on hired help for lawn and pool maintenance, home repair and child care don't think illegal immigration is that big of a deal.

Those in the higher-paid professions do not fear low-wage competition for their jobs in law, medicine, academia, the media, government or the arts. And many who have no problem with the present influx live in affluent communities with good schools insulated from the immediate budgetary consequences of meeting the needs of the offspring of the 11 million here illegally. These wealthier people aren't so much liberal in tolerating illegal immigration as self-interested and cynical.

In contrast, the far more numerous poor and lower middle classes of America, especially in the Southwest, are sincerely worried -- and angry. Indeed, it is no longer possible to caricature opponents of illegal immigration as part of a small nativist fringe.

For the broad middle class, the poor and minorities -- people who dine mostly at home, travel infrequently, mow their own lawns and change their children's diapers -- inexpensive service labor is not seen as much of a boon to them. Plus, lower- and middle-class Americans live in communities where schools are more impacted by an influx of Spanish-only speakers. And as janitors, maids, groundskeepers, carpenters, factory workers and truckers, they fear competition from lower-wage illegal alien laborers. Legal immigrants who wait years in line to enter the United States legally can be particularly unsympathetic to others who cut in front -- in violation of the law.

The public is also growing uneasy with three decades of multiculturalism while developing a new appreciation of the old multiracial melting pot. Other minorities don't understand why the Latino immigrant community needs bilingual ballots and special government translation help.

Because the United States is increasingly less a majority of whites of European ancestry and more a mixture of dozens of races and ethnicities, the need for a common unifying language and culture has never been more important. When Americans look abroad at the violent messes in the Balkans, Rwanda, Darfur and Iraq, the notion of emphasizing separation here at home by race, tribe, language or religion makes absolutely no sense. But the idea of letting only enough legal immigrants in who can be easily assimilated surely does.

Hong Kong flu

Milton Friedman laments the end of Hong Kong's wildly successful laissez-faire economic policy.

At the end of World War II, Hong Kong was a dirt-poor island with a per-capita income about one-quarter that of Britain's. By 1997, when sovereignty was transferred to China, its per-capita income was roughly equal to that of the departing colonial power, even though Britain had experienced sizable growth over the same period. That was a striking demonstration of the productivity of freedom, of what people can do when they are left free to pursue their own interests.

The success of laissez-faire in Hong Kong was a major factor in encouraging China and other countries to move away from centralized control toward greater reliance on private enterprise and the free market. As a result, they too have benefited from rapid economic growth.

The ultimate fate of China depends, I believe, on whether it continues to move in Hong Kong's direction faster than Hong Kong moves in China's.

One more thing to worry about

Here's a homefront risk that hadn't occured to me: Islamic hatred directed at wounded soldiers.

A paratrooper wounded in Afghanistan was threatened by a Muslim visitor to the British hospital where he is recovering. Seriously wounded soldiers have complained that they are worried about their safety after being left on wards that are open to the public at Selly Oak Hospital, Birmingham.

On one occasion a member of the Parachute Regiment, still dressed in his combat uniform after being evacuated from Afghanistan, was accosted by a Muslim over the British involvement in the country.

"You have been killing my Muslim brothers in Afghanistan," the man said during a tirade.

A relative of the Para said the man had twice walked on to the ward where two other soldiers and four civilians were being treated without once being challenged by staff.

"It's not the best way to treat our returning men," he said. "They are nervous that these guys might attack them and, despite being paratroopers, they cannot defend themselves because of their injuries."

Happy birthday, Dick Tracy

Sunday supplement magazine American Profile has a nice feature today: the 75th anniversary of Dick Tracy.

In some ways, the world that Tracy patrols today is much different than the one featured in the Depression-inspired panels that launched the detective into legend. Corporate crimes and international espionage influence today’s Dick Tracy artist and writer, Dick Locher, the Pulitzer Prize-winning cartoonist who took over the strip after Gould retired in 1977. Locher collaborated on Dick Tracy initially with journalist and crime novelist Mike Killian, who died in 2005.

Locher, 77, who lives in Napierville, Ill., says his goal is to create a story that people want to read—and return to—each day. “I like something you don’t give away right away,” he says. “We pick a theme. It might even have a chase, it might have romance or spying, phone taps, theft or endangerment, like Tracy hanging from the top of the Sears Tower, things like that that would keep your interest.”

“Dick Tracy remains appealing to today’s population because he represents the timeless values of justice, law and order, and honesty, but not in a way that is too good to be believable,” says Steve Tippie of Chicago’s Tribune Media Services, which syndicates the Dick Tracy strip. “I think his hard-nosed conviction—that it is the forces of the law that stand between the public and the criminals who threaten them—resonated with the public in the era of Al Capone, and still resonates in the era of Al Qaeda.”

Read the comic strip.