Petrified Truth

Bailout - Aftermath

The editorial page of The Wall Street Journal has a few comments about yesterday's collapse of the fiercely-debated bailout package.

America has survived a feckless political class in the past, and it will again after this week. But Monday's crash and burn of the Paulson plan on Capitol Hill reveals a Washington elite that has earned every bit of the disdain that Americans have for it. This crowd can't even make sausage. [...]

Given this historic abdication, we're surprised financial markets didn't melt down more than they did yesterday. Equities nonetheless took the worst bath in percentage terms since the aftermath of 9/11, with the Nasdaq falling more than 9%. But that was a sideshow compared to the credit markets, which staged another flight from all risk. The three-month Treasury yield had sunk to 0.132% the last we checked, which means investors will accept essentially no return as long as they can avoid further financial losses.

Safe in their think-tanks, some of our friends have claimed that talk of a financial crash is merely a political invention. Perhaps we'll now test their theory. A financial panic isn't an academic seminar, and a flight from all risk isn't something any free-marketeer should want. A recession now seems certain, as falling commodity prices are telling us, but the point is to prevent systemic financial collapse. Maybe the Members who voted "no" figure at least they'd still have jobs.

This process has been a debacle from the start. Unfortunately, the price of systemic failure is going to be enormous.

UPDATE: 12:30 - The market still clings to hope that something helpful will be passed.

Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, still stunned from Monday's 778-point plunge in the Dow Jones industrial average, warned that the government needs to approve a plan that will sweep away the fears that hobbled the credit markets. While U.S. political leaders have vowed to revisit the issue, the House isn't slated to meet again until Thursday.

"If it doesn't pass, then look out below," said Jason Weisberg, an NYSE trader for Seaport Securities. "It could get ugly."

Though the blue-chip index rose more than 250 points at midday, the main worry for traders is that a lack of a plan will make it nearly impossible for some companies to fund basic operations like making payroll. Participants in the credit market buy and sell debt that companies use to finance operations.

Bailout

Here's The Wall Street Journal on the financial markets bailout deal.

Today's vote is essentially a pledge of public capital to defend and rebuild the financial system. Some of that capital has already been committed via the Federal Reserve, albeit with politicians preferring not to notice. With this vote, Congress is at last taking some ownership for the mess its policies helped to create by fueling the credit housing mania earlier this decade.

Congress long ago committed taxpayers when it let Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac run wild risks with a public subsidy. It's a little rich to see some of Fannie's most devoted GOP patrons now invoking "free-market" principles to oppose cleaning up their mess. More than one Republican opponent also seems to be angling for a leadership challenge next year, even at the risk of causing a bigger GOP defeat if the bill fails.

We agree with those who say there are better ways to provide this public capital, but Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson's plan should do some good, and if executed properly shouldn't cost taxpayers anything close to its $700 billion showroom price. [...]

Thanks to the House GOP's intervention, the Paulson plan is also better than it would have been. Republicans helped to eliminate the Barney Frank-Chris Dodd slush fund for liberal housing lobbies; a plank to let judges shield deadbeat homeowners from bankruptcy laws; and a ploy to stack bank boards with union members.

Once the bailout kicks in, watch for the flies to come swarming for the sugar. All the more reason to elect as President that McCain fellow who tried hard to rein in Fannie, Freddie and all their Capitol Hill buddies back when it would have done some good.

UPDATE: The vote has failed, with 2/3 of Republicans voting "no". The Dow fell 500 points in a few minutes; down almost 800 for the day. This will reverberate loudly in overseas markets, starting in Asia tonight. Prediction: U.S. stocks plummet tomorrow - down 10%? I hope I'm wrong - if not, recession, here we come and get used to the sound of "President Obama."

Common ground

Hah: Scrappleface on responses to the presidential debate Friday night.

In the wake of the first presidential debate between Senators John McCain and Barack Obama, a CBS news poll of uncommitted voters shows that those who can’t make up their minds find more in common with Sen. Obama.

“People tend to gravitate toward the candidate who seems most like them,” said an unnamed pollster at CBS. “And we’re starting to see a shift, at least a tentative one, among those who have difficulty making decisions. To the uncommitted, Obama looks like a fellow traveler.”

The truth about gasoline shortages

An alert reader from the South who is experiencing localized gasoline shortages asks some questions, such as:

"Some of us were talking recently about the gas situation. It seems our gas comes from the refiners by pipe line. Where is the pipeline which brings gas to our area located?"

The main source of gasoline supply to the Southeast is the Colonial Pipeline. Here's a system map. Wikipedia describes the basics of its operation.

The Washington Post, after telling some stories of desperate drivers, described the situation pretty well.

AAA spokesman John Townsend said that Colonial Pipeline, a leading supplier in the region, and the smaller Plantation Pipeline, which belongs to Kinder Morgan, were functioning below capacity because of lingering refinery problems along the Gulf coast. A spokesman for Colonial, whose Web site displays a news release from Sept. 10 before Hurricane Ike hit, did not return calls for comment.

The Energy Department said that as of Wednesday 63 percent, or 800,000 barrels a day, of production in the Gulf of Mexico was still shut down as were five refineries with a combined capacity of 1.2 million barrels a day. The refineries produce a half-million barrels of gasoline a day, or about 5 percent of the nation's total supplies. Other refineries are still working at less than full capacity. Hurricane Gustav landed Sept. 1, and Ike hit Sept. 13.

"The production loss is similar to what was lost after Hurricanes Rita and Katrina," said Anne Peebles, a Shell Oil spokeswoman. "This time the physical damage [to oil facilities] was not as great, but the down time with the storms hitting back to back is similar." She said that "more fuel is coming" as facilities gradually ramp up again, but "we do think that production availability will normalize in the next several weeks."

Townsend said that the Colonial pipeline normally carries 100 million gallons a day, traveling about 2,500 miles from Texas, Louisiana and Alabama to 267 marketing terminals across the East and Southeast. Although nearly 15 percent of the gas stations in Virginia were reporting outages last week, the Washington region has been able to tap into supplies from areas such as New Jersey and Pennsylvania, which can more readily obtain supplies from tanker and other pipelines. Earlier supply problems in Chattanooga, Tenn., and Tallahassee also had eased, he said.

Other areas of the country were not so fortunate. An Atlanta Exxon dealer said that his station's allocation was only 40 percent of normal. [...]

Public officials appealed for calm as it appeared that panic buying might exacerbate supply problems if motorists try to keep more fuel than usual in their tanks. The Environmental Protection Agency suspended regulations for antipollution additives to help ease the supply situation.

Then there were related questions:

"Is all gas the same? What makes it one brand or the other is the additives which each company puts in to make it different?"

And the answer there is yes, all gasoline is basically the same. Base gasoline is the same and is freely exchanged between different companies. When the trucks are loaded at the big gasoline terminals, additives are added depending on where the gasoline will be delivered. So a delivery of Shell gasoline will have certain proprietary additives; an Exxon shipment would have different ones. Even no-name gasoline has generic additives.

People, including experts, differ on whether or not these additives are worth the higher prices. Sometimes it depends on the car, and some people do have different experiences with different brands. So, buying gasoline based just on price would usually be a pretty safe bet. Changing the oil regularly is more important for the engine's health, and keeping the tire pressure correct and watching speed is more important for mileage than any gasoline additives. If the extra few cents are affordable, then the "name" brands may be just a little better than generic gasoline.

Hurricane Ike - Day Eight

CenterPoint Energy reports more progress on restoring power to the area - as of 8:00 a.m., only 36% of their customers were dark. Unfortunately, that's still 819,000 customers. I hope that those restored include more of our friends and co-workers.

Meanwhile, non-profits who are trying to help with disaster relief are coming up short on financial support needed to do their good works.

The "disaster fatigue" that President Bush warned about earlier this week has become a major concern. [...]

As Ike was approaching last week, the Red Cross launched a national campaign to raise $100 million for its empty disaster relief fund. The organization said it would have to borrow money to cover the costs of the 2008 hurricanes.

Since Labor Day, Southern Baptist volunteers have prepared more than 1.3 million meals in response to Gustav and Ike, with the federal government paying for the food. The organization also would like to help with longer-term relief efforts.

But so far, only $29,000 has been donated, said Mike Ebert, public information officer for Southern Baptist Disaster Relief's home office in Atlanta.

The deep disconnect between truth and dark fantasy in and near any public catastrophe continues unabated as well.

[F]or some, the real story of the lives lost to Hurricane Ike remains untold.

Thousands of bodies are floating in the Gulf of Mexico, dangling from trees or otherwise obscured by debris and unaccounted for, these people insist in online forums and posted reader comments. A government conspiracy and media blackout are afoot, they say, which explains why those images remain unseen.

Coast Guard rescuers, law enforcement agencies and government officials all say otherwise, but they're part of the conspiracy, right?

The rumors are 99% untrue and ungrounded in any reality, but just read the comments in that article to see how many believe otherwise. As if the ugly reality isn't tough enough.

Palin's privacy

Well, well - it turns out that the "hacking" of Sarah Palin's personal e-mail account was perpetrated by the son of a prominent Tennessee Democrat.

A Tennessee state legislator has confirmed that his son, a 20-year-old student at the University of Tennessee-Knoxville, is the person being named on blogs and message boards in connection with the hacking of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin's e-mail account, a Nashville paper reported late yesterday.

State Rep. Mike Kernell told the Tennessean that his son, David Kernell, is at the center of speculation about the identity of the hacker who gained access to Palin's account. Kernell, a Democrat, represents District 93, which encompasses the University of Memphis and other parts of southeast Memphis.

I wonder where the ACLU, the media and the other zealous defenders of privacy are? I haven't heard them out in front on this one. Surprise.

Also, it seems the illicit method used to gain access is possible with many mainstream e-mail systems. That's disturbing.

Yahoo Mail isn't the only Web-based mail service that could be duped into giving up someone else's account password, the tactic that some have argued was used to break into Gov. Sarah Palin's e-mail earlier this week.

Google Inc.'s Gmail, Microsoft Corp.'s Windows Live Hotmail and Yahoo Inc.'s Mail all rely on automated password-reset mechanisms that can be abused by anyone who knows the username associated with an account and an answer to a single security question, according to quick tests run by Computerworld.

Computerworld reporters and editors were able to "break" into their own and colleagues' accounts on all three services, then reset passwords armed only with the account's username and the correct response to one of a limited number of common security questions, such as mother's maiden name, the name of a favorite pet or the make of a first car.

Hurricane Ike - Day Seven

As noted before, the Houston Chronicle has stepped up very well in response to the storm crisis. Their coverage has been comprehensive and informative.

For example, here's a profile of the field crews working 16-hour shifts to do the massive job of repairing our electrical system.

At least for the moment, they are heroes. Women and men start to stutter and fan themselves — no joke — when they appear. Who would I most like to see in my neighborhood right this minute? No contest. Not the pope. Not Obama or McCain. I would like to see one lineman. Two dozen would be heaven.

So, who are these guys in the tan shirts, blue jeans and work boots? They're cowboys of sorts, rough and tumble outdoorsmen patrolling power poles instead of a range.

How did local bookstores fare? Some had damage; some turned into refuges for their neighbors.

Up Bissonnet at Murder by the Book the buzz of a generator and a handwritten sign saying "We're open. Come on in!" greeted visitors. Rain blown through the walls and floor soaked carpeting there.

Alan Farrington, husband of owner Martha Farrington, spent Friday night in the store "bailing water in the dark" and has the blisters on his hands — from hours spent wringing out towels — to prove it. He was too busy to be worried, he said, although the sound of an aluminum awning on a neighboring store being blown from its moorings got his attention. [...]

Blue Willow Bookshop on Memorial on the far west side... suffered no damage at all. Being in strip center with no trees can be mixed blessing, said owner Valerie Koehler: not good when you'd like some shade, very good in a hurricane.

Besides selling books to customers, she's been hosting people looking for an electrical outlet. "We've been charging everything from cell phones to razors," she said. Her store's wireless Internet access has attracted a different clientele. "All kinds of oil deals have been going down here," she reported.

And here's a terrific profile of the hardy individualists who are already rebuilding the "scrappy" township of San Leon.

While Galveston and other coastal communities have urged residents to stay away, the leadership of this town of 4,200 that juts out into Galveston Bay are telling able-bodied men and women to get home and clean up the town, home to an eclectic collection of blue-collar shrimpers and fishermen, beach bums and retirees.

"The gut feeling here," Miller said on Friday as he struggled to put out a newspaper in neighboring Dickinson, "is that we're not going to wait for help, and we're not going to beg for it."

San Leon boasts no local government (except for an honorary mayor, elected at the annual Where in the Hell is San Leon festival each April). The town has zero big-box stores, thrives on fishing and shrimping and proudly claims to have the largest golf-cart parade in Texas.

The hurricane rolled over this town last week and took with it people's livelihoods, their boats, their businesses and swamped much of the town from the Yellow Brick Road (seriously) to April Fools Point, in a thick sludge. [...]

For a town with such severe devastation, it maintains a sense of humor.

One couple used red spray paint to write FEMA YARD OF THE MONTH on the side of their damaged wooden cottage. Some had more stern warnings: Loot on this street, die on this street.

"We are the outlaws of Galveston County," said Scott Lyons, the assistant chief for the town's volunteer fire department, driving past a home with a fake coffin in the front yard and a sign that said: Looter Vacancy.

Lyons, 31, is also the town's unofficial honorary mayor. In between emergency calls, he grumbled about Galveston County's response to the destruction in San Leon. He said about 65 percent of the town of 4,200 stayed in San Leon during the storm, but many are still missing.

Meanwhile, life continues to return to normal here west of Houston. They've even started playing high school football again, and Katy ISD will re-open on Monday.

Hurricane Ike - Day Six

Good news this morning: METRO Park & Ride ran on the I-10 HOV lane inbound. Early general traffic wasn't too heavy, so it didn't make much difference vs. using the mainlanes. But I think it will save time this evening going home from work, and every incremental improvement helps.

Observation: the nearest Shell station is out of gasoline and has been for 2-3 days. What's up with that?

Hurricane Ike - Day Five

METRO switched their plans overnight and so my Park & Ride was on a different schedule (actually the normal one). Bad timing meant I could not let them drive for me today. Bad results - two hours in stop and go traffic in the morning and more than two to get home. All due to failed signals.

Many co-workers are still suffering with their homes, but manage to stay cheerful. Someone without power brought a dozen of these today.

I was impressed.

But the Southern Baptists have arrived and started cooking for the folks who can't otherwise get a hot meal. That's some real charity.

Obama tactics

Here are two headlines featured on Drudge today:

If you think the debate is ugly now, you ain't seen nothing yet. And all this from the campaign that says it wants to unify America.

Hurricane Ike - Day Four

Back to work today, via METRO Park & Ride, which worked fine. Light ridership and a free fare. There were many noticeable dark neighborhoods along I-10 going towards central Houston. Saw lots of BIG trees down here, there and everywhere. Some were on roofs, but many kindly fell on grass or other trees. That was thoughtful.

Many, many dark neighborhoods. CenterPoint has a lot left to do.

Hurricane Ike - Day Three, continued

Traveled into Houston to check on parents' house. The house itself was tight and dry, but no power. Neighbors had cleaned the front yard (very generous), so we cleared up numerous tree limbs and other debris from the back. Made a nice big pile for the curb. Plus emptied and cleaned the fridge/freezer.

Hurricane Ike - Day Three

It's another gloriously beautiful morning here in southeast Texas. Relief and restoration efforts continue across the area.

Hurricane Ike - Two days after

Today is a glorious fall-preview day, with lower temps and humidity, thanks to our first cool front of the season. Much better for all the Houston-area folks who are standing in line for food, ice, etc.

Here in Katy, life is approaching normal with just a few restrictions like groceries only open 7-7. However, the Houston Chronicle notes that some pockets of electrical outages still remain.

CenterPoint said early this afternoon that it has completed all repairs in Katy, Richmond and Rosenberg and moved on to other areas. A Chronicle reader reported, however, that at least 26 homes in his Katy neighborhood were still without power.

That squares with news we've had from our neighbor Miss Connie who lives just a few blocks away and has no power. The phrase "moved on to other areas" is a little ominous for her if CenterPoint isn't planning to come back soon to deal with those exceptions out here.

Hurricane Ike - One Day After

Today started with powerful thunderstorms that brought more rain, another 2" here in Katy and more elsewhere in Houston. Went out around 9:00 a.m. to pick up fresh milk and something to cook for dinner. At our local Randalls the scene was busy but not crazed. Of note: the line at the Starbucks kiosk was about 20 deep, which was amusing.

A CenterPoint Energy helicopter on inspection duty flew over while we were out. It was flying north-to-south, follwing the easement where the large transmission lines run.

Hurricane Ike - final Katy report

We have our power back. Bless CenterPoint Energy and the other repair crews.

I hope everyone impacted by this crazy storm will back to normal soon.

Hurricane Ike - in the dark

6:00 - Power has been out for a few hours now. Luckily, the Sprint signal is still available and the Blackberry works as a modem. For a while, since the battery can't be recharged.

The Houston Chronicle site reports millions without power. "Two weeks" sounds ominous, but maybe ours will come back faster.

CenterPoint Energy said about 90 percent of its roughly 2 million customers were in the dark before daybreak even as the storm continued to pack a punch with the eye still in eastern Harris County as of 5:30 a.m. That means nearly 4.5 million residents were without power and doesn't include the service area of Entergy Texas, which didn't have updated figures yet.

CenterPoint spokesman Floyd LeBlanc said downtown Houston and the Medical Center, both of which have underground power lines, were the only large areas with reliable electricity. He said CenterPoint had braced for more than half its customer base losing service, and full restoration could take "several weeks."

7:25 - Getting light now, which is always a relief. Still high winds; the trees are bent and I see plenty of small debris. The rain guage says almost 3".

The drone of our neighbor's generator continues unabated. I never really wanted one before, but if we did I could make coffee. Hmm.

Hurricane Ike - finally arriving

After a full day of anticipation and news of catastrophe along the coast, the storm is arriving here in Katy. We're starting to get rain and heavier winds. So far power is holding, but news reports say 725,000 customers have none.

Hurricane Ike - almost time

5:45 - Clouds are getting heavier now and winds are gusting a bit, all from the north as expected. Just a taste of what's to come.

This will be more, um, interesting since it will mostly happen in the dark.

6:30 - The Houston Chronicle reports the 61st Street Pier in Galveston has been virtually destroyed, and that the historic Balinese Ball Room, also built on a pier, is in serious danger.

6:38 - First power fluctuations.

8:08 - still periodic power fluctuations. Probably power lines blowing in the wind gusts. Still waiting for the hard stuff.

9:53 - News reports say power outages are spreading and now total more than 300,000 customers. Weather radar shows the storm's rain bands coming ever closer to us here on the western edge of Houston. We fully expect to lose power before the night is over.

10:55 - Rain bands are still just getting to the metro Houston area. We're turning off the news coverage for a while and switching back to our NCIS dvd marathon. We're hooked.

Atomic blowback

Peggy Noonan has typically savvy comments about the misguided Democratic/media assault on Sarah Palin.

There is no denying that Mr. Obama is in a bad place, that he must now be considered the underdog, that he's wearing Loser-Glo. The slide started with the Rick Warren interviews in August, just as America was starting to pay attention. Verdict? McCain: normal. Obama: odd.

Then Mrs. Palin, and the catastrophe of the Democratic and media response to her. Books will be written about this, but because it's so recent, and so known, we're almost not absorbing how huge it was, and is. Here was the central liberal mistake: They used the atom bomb just a few days in. They used it so brutally, and yet so ineptly, in a way so oblivious to the true contours of the field, that the radiation blew back over their own lines. [...]

Most crucially, the snobbery of it, the meanness of it, reminded the entire country, for the first time in a decade, what it is they don't like about the left. Really, America had forgotten. Mr. Obama's friends reminded them. Unforgettably.

And it wasn't just excitable bloggers or 24-hour cable news shows desperate to fill the maw. The chairwoman of the South Carolina Democratic Party said this week that Mrs. Palin's "primary qualification [for vice president] seems to be that she hasn't had an abortion."

The Democrats were up against Xena the Warrior Princess and came across, in response, as pale-lipped Puritans who actually, at the end of the day, don't really like women all that much. Mrs. Palin radiates the sense that she'd never give up her femininity in her quest for power because her femininity is part of her power.

She also warns the struggle ain't over, far from it. Read the whole thing.

Hurricane Ike - current conditions

Here are some links to observe current conditions in our neighborhood.

• WeatherUnderground - Katy, Texas
• Traffic cam - Kingsland Blvd
• Harris County OEM - Rain Guage 2020

12:45 UPDATE: Finally, clouds are rolling in and the wind is picking up. The countdown really begins.

Hurricane Ike - T-minus whatever

Went out this morning briefly to pick up one or two things and check out our neighborhood here in Katy. Parking lots at the groceries were somewhat full. Open gas stations had lines of 2-4 cars at the pumps.

Things are quiet and calm for now. But on television we can see the waves getting large at Galveston and a freighter with 22 souls on board is adrift directly in the path of the storm. More to come.

Waiting for Hurricane Ike

We've completed our preparations for the arrival of oddball Hurricane Ike, which is currently drawing a bead on Galveston Island. The latest forecast calls for landfall late Friday night/Saturday morning.

More tomorrow.

Seven years and counting

The memories of September 11th will never leave us. We will not forget the burning towers, and the last phone calls, and the smoke over Arlington. We will not forget the rescuers who ran toward danger, and the passengers who rushed the hijackers. We will not forget the men and women who went to work on a typical day and never came home. We will not forget the death of schoolchildren who were on a school trip.

And we will never forget the servants of evil who plotted the attacks. And we will never forget those who rejoiced at our grief and our mourning.

- President George W. Bush, address to the FBI, September 10, 2003

Learn more:

• Pentagon Memorial Project
• Flight 93 National Memorial
• 9/11 Families for a Safe & Strong America
• Popular Mechanics - Debunking the 9/11 Myths: Special Report

Ways to help:

• Fisher House Foundation
• Disabled American Veterans Charitable Service Trust
• Wounded Warrior Project

Disinformation

It's bad enough that so many journalists and news organizations (e.g., MSNBC) are blatantly pro-Obama during this presidential year. But John Fund warns that the Obama campaign is actively hiding information about their candidate and even suppressing investigations. Can it continue through the election?

Obama aides believe John Kerry lost in 2004 because he failed to respond to the "Swift Boat" ads attacking him, and they are lashing out. Sometimes the Obama objections have merit, as when they exposed errors in Jerome Corsi's sensationalized Obama biography. But sometimes they are designed to shut down legitimate questions. "They're terrified of people poking around Obama's life," one reporter told Gabriel Sherman at the New Republic. "The whole Obama narrative is built around the narrative that Obama and [campaign strategist] David Axelrod built, and, like all stories, it's not entirely true." The stakes are high. If the full story of Mr. Obama's relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright had been revealed before the Iowa caucus, he wouldn't have won.

Aides claim Mr. Obama "has taken voluntary transparency steps" that allow "his constituents, the media and his political opponents to fully examine him." In reality, anyone questioning the approved story line is liable to be ignored, misled or even bullied. This isn't what reporters expected when Mr. Obama began campaigning for a "new politics" that would bring honesty and openness to government.